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Abstract
Biological invasions represent one of the main threats to global biodiversity. Studying the climatic niche of invasive species allows us to elucidate the dynamics of invasions by comparing the global climatic niche with the regional one. In this study, we used species distribution models to assess the demographic status of invasion of the American mink (Neogale vison) in Chile, integrating both its global and regional climatic niches. To do this, we worked with global and regional occurrence records, along with nine bioclimatic variables. The global model predicted a potential distribution in Chile of 124,238.21 km², while the regional model restricted it to 14,718.31 km², mainly in Chiloé, Aysén, Tierra del Fuego, and the Cape Horn archipelago. Most populations (88.75%) are in a state of equilibrium, indicating strong stabilization in the region; 0.89% are in local adaptation; 7.35% are in colonization and 3.01% in the sink. The results suggest that N. vison could expand in the central area of Chiloé island, Aysén and the Archipiélago de Chonos, Archipiélago Tierra del Fuego and, Reserva de la Biosfera Cabo de Hornos. Furthermore, N. vison is occupying novel climatic conditions north of Maullín. Given the high dispersal capacity and the evidenced impacts of N. vison on biodiversity and human communities, it is recommended to focus on differentiated monitoring and control strategies depending on whether they are in stabilized populations and in local adaptation or colonization, these being the ones that represent the greatest risk to local biodiversity.
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